Wheat

Market Recap
Wheat futures were higher Monday with the Dec contract finishing the session at a one week high of 525’0, adding 1’4. Across all maturities, a light 82,503 contracts were traded, with 55,496 done in the Dec maturity. Overall open interest increased by 228 (0.0497%), with Dec off by 2,782, or 1.05%, to 263,002.

Technicals (December)
December wheat futures posted the third consecutive day of higher closes. That may not sound all that impressive considering it’s still only about 13 cents off the contract low, but that’s the first time we’ve seen 3 that since the first week of June!!! Resistance levels remain intact with 533 3/4-535 being the big hurdle to get out above. If the market can clear that pocket, it could open the door for additional technical momentum. Seasonals are far from perfect in any given commodity, but a we are entering a historically friendlier time of year for wheat which may help act as a tailwind. In my opinion, this market offers the most bang for the buck right now. With volatility near multi-year lows, options can be a great way to get limited risk exposure. Fee free to reach out to our trade desk to discuss a suitable strategy for you: 312-278-0500.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 533 3/4-535**, 543 3/4-548 1/2**
Pivot: 524 1/2-525
Support: 510*, 494 1/2-500**

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Nov 555 calls with 526 changing hands and the Nov 515 puts with volume of 568. In Dec options, the highest volume call was in the 525 strike with 274 traded, and the 500 put leads with volume of 511. Calls with the largest open interest are the Dec 600 strike (5,412), and for the puts are the Dec 500 strike (4,546).

Vol Update
Wheat implied volatility finished the session sharply up as WVL increased 1.0 to close the day at 21.66, a one week high. Up by 0.0099%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 20.23%. The WVL Skew ended the session higher, up 0.2 to close at 3.48, a one month high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.15.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were short 92,394 futures and options contracts.

Check out the charts:  Is the Bottom in for Wheat? - Blue Line Futures

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